The gold price is sitting comfortably above the $1200 mark in today’s trading session on the back of US dollar weakness and some see next week’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement as the main driver of the precious metal as the ear closes out.
The market has priced in an almost 100 percent chance the Fed will hike interest rates next week so the main focus will be the following statement for signs of any further rate hikes this year or as we enter 2019.
I there is any hint that the US central bank is hesitant on moving rates any higher for the rest of the year gold is likely to benefit.
“Any change in Fed policy hinting to a pause in the hiking cycle, whether due to low inflation or weak domestic housing indicators, would likely see a relief rally for gold prices,” said analysts from BMO Capital Markets.
“We see market positioning as too complacent in projecting a gold trend lower at the present time, particularly given potential emerging-market retail allocation back towards gold.” They added.
Donald Trump’s trade war against China has been a burden on the gold price in recent weeks as investors took positions in the US dollar but the dispute between the US and the world’s second largest economy may eventually have negative consequences for the US economy as was noted by the Fed in their latest minutes meeting.
“Participants observed that if a large scale and prolonged dispute over trade policies developed, there would likely be adverse effects on business sentiment, investment spending, and employment,” the minutes noted.
If this situation eventuates gold is also likely to receive a further boost.